Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade value rose 11% in the first five months of 2026 from a year earlier, ranking third among global regions, as artificial intelligence demand helped drive world trade growth despite tariffs and geopolitical tensions, according to a report released by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business.

The findings, published on October 7 in the latest DHL Globalization Tracker, also showed that globalisation reached a record 25.8% in 2025, reflecting increased international flows of trade, capital, information and people.

AI Demand Supports Global Trade Growth

The report identifies demand for goods used to build artificial intelligence infrastructure as a major driver of international trade, helping offset the effects of higher tariffs, geopolitical tensions and disruptions to key shipping routes.

Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year period in the previous 15 years, except for the exceptional rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the tracker.

Semiconductors and data-transmission equipment were among the products benefiting from investment in AI infrastructure.

Analysis by the World Trade Organization and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, cited in the report, found that AI-enabling goods accounted for 42% of goods trade growth in 2025. Their contribution increased to 76% in the first quarter of 2026.

“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs,” said John Pearson, chief executive of DHL Express.

The findings suggest that investment in digital infrastructure is becoming an increasingly important influence on international commerce, even as governments introduce trade restrictions and businesses navigate political uncertainty.

Sub-Saharan Africa Ranks Third in Trade Growth

Sub-Saharan Africa recorded an 11% increase in trade value during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

East Asia and the Pacific led the regional rankings, with trade value increasing by 24%, followed by Europe at 12%, according to the DHL Globalization Tracker.

The African region’s performance follows a strong showing in the first half of 2025, when it recorded the fastest trade value growth globally, the report said.

Hennie Heymans, chief executive of DHL Express Sub-Saharan Africa, said the figures highlighted the continued expansion of trade connections across the region and with international markets despite disruptions.

“The next step is making sure more SMEs can access those opportunities and grow beyond their home markets,” Heymans said, referring to small and medium-sized enterprises.

Expanding access to international markets could help African businesses reach more customers and participate in cross-border supply chains. However, the reported increase in trade value does not, by itself, establish how much individual countries or businesses benefited.

The regional figure also does not mean that all Sub-Saharan African economies experienced the same growth rate. The tracker presents an aggregate regional measure rather than a uniform assessment of individual countries.

Globalisation Reaches a Record 25.8%

The report measured globalisation at 25.8% in 2025, its highest level since the tracker began measuring the indicator.

The index assesses the extent to which economic and social activities cross national borders, covering international trade, capital, information and people flows. Its scale runs from zero, representing no cross-border flows, to 100%, representing a world in which borders and distance have no effect.

Information flows remained the most internationalised category, followed by capital and trade flows. People flows were the least globalised, according to the report.

All four categories contributed to the record reading, indicating that global connections continued to expand despite concerns about protectionism and geopolitical fragmentation.

The findings challenge the assumption that rising political tensions necessarily translate into a broad retreat from international economic integration. They do not, however, suggest that every measure of cross-border activity is increasing at the same rate.

The report also examined changes in economic relationships between the United States and China, two major participants in global trade.

Trade ties between the two countries have declined significantly over the past decade. Their bilateral trade represented 1.6% of global goods trade in the first five months of 2026, down from a peak of 3.5% in 2015, according to the tracker.

Despite this decline, the report found that the United States’ close allies had largely maintained their economic relationships with China, suggesting that reduced bilateral links between the two largest economies had not yet produced a comprehensive split in the global economy.

Asia Benefits from Regional Supply Chains

East Asia and the Pacific combined the strongest trade growth among the regions examined with an increase in the share of trade conducted within the region.

The proportion of the region’s trade that remained within its borders rose from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026.

The report linked the increase partly to supply chains supporting demand for AI-related products.

Regional production networks can allow manufacturers to source components, assemble products and distribute goods across neighbouring economies. Such networks can also help businesses respond to changing demand and supply disruptions.

For African economies, the comparison highlights the importance of developing stronger regional production links alongside trade with markets outside the continent.

The World Bank has separately argued that Africa can gain more from economic integration by reducing cross-border trade costs, improving transport and customs systems, and connecting production across countries.

Its August 2026 report on regional integration said intra-African trade accounts for roughly 15% to 20% of the continent’s total trade, while being more diversified and manufacturing-intensive than Africa’s exports to the rest of the world.

Outlook For Trade Through 2029 Improves

The DHL Globalization Tracker also reported an improved outlook for international trade, with growth through 2029 forecast to outpace the previous decade.

The tracker draws on more than 25 public, private and academic sources and analyses more than 30 million data points covering international trade, capital, information and people flows.

It is commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University’s Stern School of Business.

The findings offer a broad assessment of global economic connections, but the outlook remains exposed to changes in trade policy, geopolitical tensions and disruptions to international transport networks.

For Sub-Saharan Africa, sustaining trade growth will depend not only on external demand but also on how effectively businesses can access markets, develop competitive products and participate in regional and international supply chains.

The 11% increase recorded in early 2026 provides evidence of stronger trade values across the region.

Whether that expansion translates into broader gains for businesses, employment and household incomes will depend on the distribution of those gains and the region’s capacity to convert cross-border trade into productive economic activity.